Proof that The End of Moore’s Law is Not The End of The Singularity
Dec05

Proof that The End of Moore’s Law is Not The End of The Singularity

Share Posted by Eric Klien During the last few years, the semiconductor industry has been having a harder and harder time miniaturizing transistors with the latest problem being Intel’s delayed roll-out of its new 14 nm process. The best way to confirm this slowdown in progress of computing power is to try to run your current programs on a 6-year-old computer. You will likely have few problems since computers have not sped up greatly during the past 6 years. If you had tried this experiment a decade ago you would have found a 6-year-old computer to be close to useless as Intel and others were able to get much greater gains per year in performance than they are getting today. Many are unaware of this problem as improvements in software and the current trend to have software rely on specialized GPUs instead of CPUs has made this slowdown in performance gains less evident to the end user. (The more specialized a chip is, the faster it runs.) But despite such workarounds, people are already changing their habits such as upgrading their personal computers less often. Recently people upgraded their ancient Windows XP machines only because Microsoft forced them to by discontinuing support for the still popular Windows XP operating system. (Windows XP was the second most popular desktop operating system in the world the day after Microsoft ended all support for it. At that point it was a 12-year-old operating system.) It would be unlikely that AIs would become as smart as us by 2029 as Ray Kurzweil has predicted if we depended on Moore’s Law to create the hardware for AIs to run on. But all is not lost. Previously, electromechanical technology gave way to relays, then to vacuum tubes, then to solid-state transistors, and finally to today’s integrated circuits. One possibility for the sixth paradigm to provide exponential growth of computing has been to go from 2D integrated circuits to 3D integrated circuits. There have been small incremental steps in this direction, for example Intel introduced 3D tri-gate transistors with its first 22 nm chips in 2012. While these chips were slightly taller than the previous generation, performance gains were not great from this technology. (Intel is simply making its transistors taller and thinner. They are not stacking such transistors on top of each other.) But quietly this year, 3D technology has finally taken off. The recently released Samsung 850 Pro which uses 42 nm flash memory is competitive with competing products that use 19 nm flash memory. Considering that, for a regular flat chip, 42 nm memory is (42 × 42) / (19 × 19) = 4.9 times as big and therefore 4.9 times less productive to...

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IBM’s Newest Invention Mimics the Human Brain on an Atomic Level
Mar22

IBM’s Newest Invention Mimics the Human Brain on an Atomic Level

IBM scientists described a new kind of circuit in a paper published in Science on Thursday. There is no chip involve, per se. It’s being described accurately as a “post-silicon transistor” and potentially paves the way for the most powerful and efficient computers the world has ever seen….

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Machine Learning is Progressing Faster Than You Think
Aug20

Machine Learning is Progressing Faster Than You Think

Shareby SOCRATES Dr. Geordie Rose is a founder and Chief Technology Officer at D-Wave Computers. I met Geordie at the IdeaCity conference in Toronto where he made an impassioned presentation about D-Wave andquantum computing. Needless to say, as soon as Dr. Rose stoped speaking I rushed to ask him for an interview. As it turns out Geordie is already a fan of Singularity 1 on 1 and isntantly said that he would be happy to do it. As a father of three kids and the CTO of a trail-blazing quantum computing company, Dr. Rose is a very busy person. Yet somehow he was generous beyond measure in giving me over two hours for an interview with the apparent desire to address as many of mine and the audience’s quest ions as possible. During our conversation with Geordie Rose we cover a variety of interesting topics such as: how wrestling competitively created an opportunity for him to discover Quantum Mechanics; why he decided to become an entrepreneur building computers at the edge of science and technology; what the name D-wave stands for; what is a quantum computer; why fabrication tech is the greatest limiting factor towards commoditizing quantum computing; hardware specs and interesting details around Vesuvius – D-Wave’s latest model, and the kinds of problems it can compute; Rose’s Law as the quantum computer version of Moore’s Law; how D-wave resolves the de-coherence/interference problem; the traditional von Neumann architecture behind classical computer design and why D-Wave had to move beyond it; Vesuvius’ computational power as compared to similarly priced classical super-computers and the inherent difficulties in accurate bench-marking; Eric Ladizinski’s qubit and the velodrome metaphor used to describe it; the skepticism among numerous scientists as to whether D-Wave really makes quantum computers or not; whether Geordie feels occasionally like Charles Babbage trying to build his difference engine; his prediction that quantum computers will help us create AI by 2029; whether the brain is more like a classical or quantum computer; how you can apply for programming time on the two D-wave quantum computers; his take on the technological singularity… See more at singularity weblog: Machine Learning is Progressing Faster Than You...

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